As the storm clouds gather for Iraq’s postelection season of political turmoil, the prospects for stable governance as U.S. combat troops prepare to depart appear increasingly uncertain. Preliminary returns released Thursday from four of Iraq’s 18 provinces show the incumbent, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, carrying predominantly Shi’ite areas – despite a strong challenge from supporters of radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. Former U.S.-installed Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, a secular Shi’ite who, like Maliki, leads a broad nationalist coalition with strong Sunni Arab representation, appears to have prevailed in predominantly Sunni areas north of Baghdad.

If that pattern holds, Maliki’s State of Law coalition would likely emerge with a plurality of the vote; there are, after all, probably twice as many Shi’ites as there are Sunnis in Iraq’s electorate, even though hundreds of thousands more Sunnis appear to have voted this time compared with 2005’s turnout. But Maliki is unlikely to win a majority, and would need coalition partners – perhaps from among the Kurdish nationalist parties that again polled strongly enough in their own areas to potentially earn a kingmaking role in Baghdad, or from the Sadrists and other Shi’ite Islamist parties, or even from Allawi’s bloc. But Allawi has alleged widespread fraud by his opponent’s supporters, setting the stage for a potentially violent struggle over the election’s legitimacy. For many Sunnis who voted for the first time on Sunday, being told that the election was rigged against them would reinforce their alienation from the post-Saddam political order – and raise the potential for violence. (See pictures of Iraq preparing to go to the polls.)

Even if the results are accepted, the current pattern suggests bad news for Maliki. It has been widely suggested that most of the potential coalition partners to whom his bloc would turn would insist that Maliki himself step down and accept an alternative candidate for Prime Minister. A frenzy of negotiations among leaders from all the political blocs is already under way, but it could take weeks – even months – to yield a new government. Accusations of ballot fraud could undermine the legitimacy of any new government and also weaken Maliki, who will remain in charge until one is formed.

Although Maliki’s and Allawi’s blocs both articulate a message of Iraqi national unity over ethnic or sectarian loyalties, the political contest is still fueled by the unresolved struggle over power and resources between rival communities. That contest echoes a regional power struggle, with Iraq’s predominantly Sunni neighbors such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Syria supporting a greater share of power for Iraq’s Sunnis. Allawi’s list of candidates includes some of the key Sunni political players, and the self-styled strongman makes no secret of his desire to challenge Iranian influence in Baghdad. Iran would prefer that Maliki stay in power, though Tehran is even closer to his Shi’ite rivals such as Sadr and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq. (Watch a video about Iraq’s vote.)

The stakes in Iraq’s political process – domestically and regionally – are high, and reflect the absence of a consensus on both fronts. Despite their distaste for Saddam Hussein, Iraq’s Arab neighbors had long looked to his regime to serve as a regional bulwark against Iranian influence in the Middle East, and supported his eight-year war against the Islamic Republic in the 1980s. The U.S. invasion removed that bulwark, and Iran has profited greatly from Iraqi democracy. The governments elected since Saddam’s overthrow have been uniformly friendly toward Tehran and dominated by Shi’ite parties. While none of these governments have been a proxy for Iran, they have certainly been resistant to being drawn into anti-Iran regional power games.

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NEW YORK – Hilary Mantel’s “Wolf Hall,” winner last year of the Man Booker Prize in London, was honored Thursday night on this side of the Atlantic Ocean.

The novel, set in the age of King Henry VIII, won the National Book Critics Circle Prize for fiction. It’s a compassionate narrative of royal adviser Thomas Cromwell, a leading enforcer of the English Reformation and a rival of Sir Thomas More.

Mantel was not in attendance at Thursday’s ceremony but issued a statement saying that she was working on a sequel and that the award is “the best possible encouragement.”

Three British authors were winners Thursday: Mantel, historian Richard Holmes for general nonfiction and 92-year-old editor Diane Athill for autobiography.

Holmes was cited for his highly regarded study of the crossed stars of science and poetry, “The Age of Wonder.” Blake Bailey’s “Cheever: A Life,” a thorough account of the late novelist John Cheever, was the biography winner, and Athill won for “Somewhere Towards the End,” an atheist’s spirited reflection on old age.

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ANCHORAGE, Alaska – Wolves likely killed a teacher jogging alone along a rural Alaska village road, public safety officials said Thursday.

The Alaska State Medical Examiner listed “multiple injuries due to animal mauling” as the cause of death for Candice Berner, 32, a special education teacher from Pennsylvania who began working in Alaska in August. Her body was found off the road a mile outside the village of Chignik Bay on the Alaska Peninsula, which is about 474 miles southwest of Anchorage.

The autopsy could not say which animals, said Col. Audie Holloway, head of the Alaska State Troopers, but wolves are the chief suspect.

“There’s no other carnivores in that area that are out and active,” he said.

Wolves, bears, foxes and other wildlife have disturbed bodies in the Alaska wilderness, but Holloway said the autopsy ruled out other causes that may have killed Berner. Additional tests could tie the death to wolves, Holloway said.

“If we’re able to actually prove which animal, it will be through some kind of DNA analysis or through some expert that can maybe testify or explain how they know that it’s a wolf,” he said.

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JACUMBA, Calif. – A Toyota executive said Thursday the company is “mystified” by a report that a California man’s Prius gas pedal became stuck and caused the car to speed out of control on a California freeway.

James Sikes quickly became the face of the Toyota gas pedal scandal after he called 911 to report losing control of his Prius on Monday. His car reached nerve-rattling speeds of 94 mph before an officer helped bring it to a stop.

Federal investigators are looking into the incident, and Toyota officials said they have talked extensively to Sikes.

A law firm representing Sikes said Thursday he has no plans to sue Toyota over the ordeal. A phone message left for the firm seeking additional comment wasn’t immediately returned.

Don Esmond, senior vice president of automotive operations for Toyota Motor Sales, said all Priuses are equipped with a computer system that cuts power to the wheels if the brake and gas pedals are depressed at the same time — something Sikes was doing.

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